Adam Bonica (@adambonica.bsky.social) profile banner on Bluesky

Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

26.5Kfollowers
1.2Kfollowing
747posts

Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com

Pinned posts

Pinned
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Dec 6

Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:

41
462
1.0K

Top posts

Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Aug 3

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

391
3.0K
7.8K
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Jun 25

Since May: Federal district courts have ruled against Trump admin 94% of the time. Supreme Court has sided with the Trump admin 94% of the time. A judiciary at war with itself.

Bar chart titled “The Supreme Court vs. The Lower Courts: Rulings on the Trump Administration” showing three horizontal bar charts for May 1-June 23, 2025. Federal District Courts: large red bar (82 cases, 94.3% against) with tiny green bar (5 cases, 5.7% for). Circuit Courts of Appeal: medium red bar (15 cases, 68.2% against) with smaller green bar (7 cases, 31.8% for). Supreme Court: tiny red bar (1 case, 6.3% against) with large green bar (15 cases, 93.7% for). Shows dramatic reversal from lower courts ruling against Trump administration to Supreme Court ruling for it.
265
3.0K
6.7K
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Jul 9

The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House. When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases. For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.

Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show:
	•	Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.
	•	Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.

Key takeaway box below reads:
“Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.”

Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.
114
2.4K
5.1K

Latest posts

Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·3d

Another Trump-endorsed foreign party cruising toward electoral disaster. If Magyar’s Tisza lead holds, Orbán will become the latest authoritarian taken down by an anti-corruption movement. What authoritarians fear most is an opposition with hands clean enough to credibly promise to clean house.

Table of Hungarian parliamentary seat projections from various pollsters, published between 22 Feb and 8 Apr 2026. Columns show publication date, polling date, projection source, pollster, and projected seats for each party, ending with majority size. Across every row, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Párt is projected to win a large majority — ranging from 106 to 141 seats — while Orbán’s Fidesz trails badly with between 52 and 87 seats. Most other parties (DK, MSZP, Zöldek, LMP, Mi Hazánk, etc.) are projected to win zero seats, with Mi Hazánk (MH) picking up 4–7. Tisza’s projected majority ranges from 7 to 42 seats. The most recent poll (Medián, 8 Apr 2026) shows the widest gap: Tisza 141, Fidesz 52, for a 42-seat majority.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
3
24
79
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Mar 18

@katmabu.bsky.social narrowly lost the IL-09 primary last night. But here's a number worth sitting with. Her campaign brought in more first-time Gen Z donors than Jeffries, Schumer, the DSCC, and the DCCC, and her primary opponents combined. This is why campaigns like hers matter.

Horizontal bar chart showing new first-time Gen Z donors (under 30) by campaign, through 2025. Abughazaleh leads with 3,164, followed by the DSCC (1,880), DCCC (734), Jeffries (273), Biss (17), Fine (7), and Schumer (3). Abughazaleh's bar is highlighted in blue; all others are gray.
9
153
587
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Mar 7

The only thing popularists fear more than an unpopular idea from the left is a popular one that might actually threaten billionaires.

1
29
169
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 28

A functioning opposition party would respond to this moment by committing to join the ICC when they return to power. Democrats won’t. And it’s for the same reason they failed to hold Trump accountable after Jan 6. Shielding elites from accountability is a depressingly bipartisan project in DC.

6
42
162
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 27

Strongly recommend this excellent piece. It actually understates the US failure: Brazil and S. Korea aren’t outliers. Quite the opposite. Since 2010, 31 democracies have convicted or banned leaders from office. Accountability is the democratic norm. America is the sole outlier.

9
270
660
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 26

This is devastating, tragic, and powerful reporting. Underneath it all, it’s remarkable to see what Iranians will risk to be free. A reminder of how much we have left to lose and why it’s worth fighting for—and that once we reclaim our democracy, we’ll have an obligation to help others do the same.

6
39
98
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 16

This tracks closely with the argument I’ve made about the U.S.: scarcity is litigated, not regulated. Civil law countries have much more regulation but far fewer lawsuits. The housing crisis isn’t about too many rules; it’s about who can afford to sue over them.

4
28
85
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 8

Epstiarchy (n.) — a corrupt system of rule in which oligarchs maintain power through extreme wealth, mutual protection, and the capture or abuse of legal and political institutions; marked by egregious crimes that are widely known yet go unpunished. Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island

5
49
163
Adam Bonica avatar
Adam Bonica·Feb 3

“We have been asked to call the centrist response to this presidency “moderation.” Recent events make it clear we should recognize it as appeasement.” Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.

8
97
265