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Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

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Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com

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Adam Bonica·Dec 6

Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:

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Adam Bonica·Aug 3

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

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Adam Bonica·Jun 25

Since May: Federal district courts have ruled against Trump admin 94% of the time. Supreme Court has sided with the Trump admin 94% of the time. A judiciary at war with itself.

Bar chart titled “The Supreme Court vs. The Lower Courts: Rulings on the Trump Administration” showing three horizontal bar charts for May 1-June 23, 2025. Federal District Courts: large red bar (82 cases, 94.3% against) with tiny green bar (5 cases, 5.7% for). Circuit Courts of Appeal: medium red bar (15 cases, 68.2% against) with smaller green bar (7 cases, 31.8% for). Supreme Court: tiny red bar (1 case, 6.3% against) with large green bar (15 cases, 93.7% for). Shows dramatic reversal from lower courts ruling against Trump administration to Supreme Court ruling for it.
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Adam Bonica·Jul 9

The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House. When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases. For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.

Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show:
	•	Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.
	•	Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.

Key takeaway box below reads:
“Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.”

Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.
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Adam Bonica·Sep 22

“Oh my God, all of it is for sale. It’s all for sale.”

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Adam Bonica·Sep 18

It takes a special kind of calculated cowardice to oppose regulations supported by two-thirds of voters because you rank the threat of the AI industry maybe buying some campaign ads above it maybe killing everyone.

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Adam Bonica·Sep 16

No one is better at cutting through the noise of anti-trans politics and laying bare the trap it sets than @juliaserano.bsky.social. Essential reading.

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Adam Bonica·Sep 15

Nice to know Kamala and Doug accept me for who I truly am.

Screenshot of an automated fundraising email from the DSCC addressed repeatedly to "Human ATM." A card in the center features a photo of Doug Emhoff and Kamala Harris with the text "2026 DEMOCRATIC MEMBER / SUPPORTER: Human ATM / MAY MEMBERSHIP: NOT ACTIVATED." The body text begins: "Human ATM -- Kamala and Doug are counting on this team to help Democrats fight for the Senate!"
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Adam Bonica·Sep 12

My favorite thing about this poll is that ‘Accepting a luxury jet from Qatar while the Trump Organization pursues business opportunities in the Gulf’ came in last. Deeper bench than the ‘92 Dream Team.

Bar chart from Data for Progress titled 'Trump's Handling of the Epstein Files Is Seen as the Most Concerning Corruption-Related Action.' An August 28–31, 2026 survey of 1,167 U.S. likely voters asked which of Trump's second-term actions are most concerning, selecting up to two. Results: declining to fully release the Epstein files, 22%; directing federal law-enforcement investigations against political opponents, 17%; using the presidency to enrich his properties like Mar-a-Lago, 17%; growing his family's cryptocurrency business including Trump meme coins, 15%; family and associates moving between government roles and private ventures, 15%; pardoning allies including Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, 12%; easing regulations in industries where his family has financial interests, 12%; selling early access to his social media posts for up to $100,000 a month, 11%; accepting millions in White House ballroom donations from companies with business before the government, 11%; accepting a luxury jet from Qatar while the Trump Organization pursues Gulf business, 9%, last among the listed actions. 'None of these are concerning to me' drew 18% and 'Don't know'
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Adam Bonica·Sep 10

Setting aside that Trump's $5K check is not real, the total cost would be about on par with Elon Musk's fortune. Whatever anyone says about a midterm bribery check being fiscally irresponsible, it's nowhere near as irresponsible as letting one man hoard the equivalent of all those checks to himself.

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Adam Bonica·Aug 28

Fundraising spam sent on the day she passed. Have they no decency?

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Adam Bonica·Aug 28

“Every policy that is responsible for the affordability crisis in the US can be traced back to a policy written and bought by big money. [C]orruption is not some esoteric abstract issue. Corruption is why the working class and middle class of this country is being immiserated.” @davidsirota.com

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Adam Bonica·Aug 27

These are the types of fundraising emails spam PACs are blasting out to their lists.

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Adam Bonica·Aug 27

Here are more captive Democratic fundraising spam donors. Again, there are thousands of cases like these. 82yo from OK: $300K across 22K donations 87yo from RI: $286K across 19.5K donations 84yo from NM: $24K across 2.5K donations 73yo from CA: $521K across 28K donations

A data graphic detailing recurring political donations by an 87-year-old Rhode Island resident charged 19,528 times since 2018 for a total of $286,595. The top timeline chart tracks daily donation frequency during the donor's busiest stretch from January 2020 through March 2021, showing sustained giving throughout late 2020 and early 2021 that peaked at 153 charges in a single day. The bottom horizontal bar chart displays the 12 largest recipients out of 552 total committees and campaigns—led by End Citizens United ($9,730 across 1,809 charges), the DCCC ($21,155 across 1,540 charges), and Progressive Turnout Project ($7,759 across 900 charges)—noting that the top 10 recipients account for 36% of all donations, with the remainder scattered across 542 other entities.
A data graphic detailing recurring political donations by an 82-year-old Oklahoma resident charged 22,251 times since 2018 for a total of $298,967. The top timeline chart tracks daily donation frequency during the donor's busiest stretch from August 2023 through October 2024, showing persistent daily activity that spiked to 74 charges in a single day in April 2024. The bottom horizontal bar chart displays the 12 largest recipients out of 411 total committees and campaigns—led by Let America Vote PAC ($7,337 across 1,036 charges), End Citizens United ($3,984 across 723 charges), and Stop Republicans ($6,017 across 646 charges)—noting that the top 10 recipients represent just 26% of all donations, with the rest distributed across 401 other entities.
A data graphic detailing recurring political donations by an 84-year-old New Mexico resident charged 2,484 times since 2018 for a total of $24,487. The top timeline chart tracks daily donation frequency during the donor's busiest stretch from April 2025 through June 2026, showing steady, repeated charges that peaked at 17 in a single day in November 2025. The bottom horizontal bar chart displays the 12 largest recipients out of 224 total committees and campaigns—led by candidates Hakeem Jeffries ($2,155 across 329 charges) and Adam Schiff ($1,393 across 196 charges), followed by the Democratic Party of New Mexico ($1,457 across 138 charges)—noting that the top 10 recipients account for 55% of all donations, with the remainder spread across 214 other entities.
A data graphic detailing recurring political donations by a 73-year-old California resident charged 28,374 times since 2019 for a total of $521,876. The top timeline chart tracks daily donation frequency during the donor's busiest stretch from December 2023 through February 2025, displaying heavy, continuous activity throughout 2024 that peaked at 80 charges in a single day in June 2024. The bottom horizontal bar chart shows the 12 largest recipients out of 524 total committees and campaigns—led by Progressive Turnout Project ($21,042 across 1,079 charges), the DCCC ($25,782 across 871 charges), and March On PAC ($17,656 across 821 charges)—noting that the top 10 recipients account for just 23% of all donations, with the rest distributed across 514 other entities.
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