Adam Carlson

For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2

Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him

Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!

In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31). Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026. Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.

New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters) DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE) 🔵 55% Platner (+27) 🔵 28% Mills — GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE) 🔵 48% Platner (+7) 🔴 41% Collins 🔵 46% Mills (+3) 🔴 43% Collins

This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos) Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):

Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions. Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards. Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards. Gray wards are usually competitive.

🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800 likely Dem primary voters in Maryland (2/8-11) 🚨 🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it

Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points Buckle up.

Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided

I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.