Ben Casselman

Just received this statement from Lisa Cook: "President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."

CBO is out with its final cost estimate of the tax-and-spending bill passed by the House. - Revenue ⬇️ by $3.7 trillion over 10 years - Spending ⬇️ by $1.3 trillion - Debt ⬆️ by $2.4 trillion over 10 years - Uninsured pop. ⬆️ by 10.9 million in 2034 Full analysis: www.cbo.gov/publication/...

For months, people have been asking me whether I still trusted gov’t data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges, some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling. I can’t say that anymore. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

Even the sky is blue and orange. #KnicksIn5

In Senate testimony, Brett Matsumoto, Trump's nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, promises to maintain the independence of the agency. “It is important for the public to be confident that decisions at the BLS are benign driven by science rather than politics."

The A.I. jobs debate has tended to focus on software engineers and other tech workers. But the real risk could be in the back office -- the source of middle-class jobs for millions of workers, especially women. My story: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/b...

Charts! Overall consumer prices were up 4.2 percent in May, the fastest year-over-year inflation since April 2023. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were up 2.9 percent. #NumbersDay

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in May and were up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent month-over-month and 2.9 percent year-over-year. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06... #NumbersDay

Here's the actual prime-age epop graph, since I just reposted the unemployment rate graph before.

The re-acceleration in job growth this year is striking (and honestly surprising). Job growth has averaged 188k over the past three months; in December, the three-month average stood at -39k (yes, *negative*). #NumbersDay

U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/bu... #NumbersDay

Interesting analysis from Steve Englander at Standard Chartered finding that QCEW-based job growth in the final three quarters of 2025 was aligned with (actually slightly *higher* than) monthly payroll estimates. Suggests @usbls.bsky.social may have succeeded in closing the NFP-QCEW gap. #EconSky

Job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April, and layoffs ticked back down after rising in March. But hiring and quits continued to slow. In other words: More of this low-churn, "low-hire, low-fire" labor market. #NumbersDay www.bls.gov/news.release...