Parker Ross

Not a pretty jobs report today... I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid." A lot to unpack in the 🧵 #EconSky

Powell successfully discouraged those hoping for a Sept rate cut yesterday. This morning's relatively hot PCE report just added fuel to that trend. Odds of a Sept rate cut have plunged to less than 40% from 66% at the start of the week. 👇 #EconSky

About that "no evidence of inflation" from tariffs... If you know where to look, it seems pretty clear that inflationary pressures are building in the product categories most exposed to tariffs. More evidence in the 🧵 #EconSky

Here we go again… A lot of analysis today claiming the birth-death model inflated the Jan job gain (130k). Some are even subtracting the B-D contribution from the headline to argue the "real" number was negative. The underlying logic is flawed – but there's a kernel of truth. 🧵 #EconSky

The BLS just released the *final* CES benchmark revisions with this morning's jobs report. The 2025 labor market was dramatically weaker than originally reported... and for 12 straight months, job growth was never statistically different from zero. A deep dive with charts in the 🧵 #EconSky

Real-time policy transmission... Collapsing mortgage spreads translating to immediate relief for the 30Y fixed rate mortgage. First time below 6% since early '23 according to MND #EconSky

Secondary mortgage spreads are down a massive 20bps+ on the week, with most of that move happening this morning. What's happening? The mortgage market is undergoing a structural repricing following the directive for Fannie & Freddie to deploy $200B into MBS. Let's dig in a bit in the 🧵 #EconSky

I’ve been a bit quiet on here recently as my family ramped up preparations for our third son. Thrilled to announce baby Logan has arrived! Mom and baby are healthy and happy, and the big bros are over the moon!

As I showed yesterday, business investment in software & tech is adding more to GDP growth than ever before. But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom. Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story. More in 🧵 #EconThreads

Software + Tech Bubble 2.0? In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale. For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960. #EconSky

Pretty notable upward revisions to 2Q25 real GDP growth this morning: up 50bps to 3.8% from 3.3% prior. All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption. Details in 🧵 #EconSky

After spiking to a new post-pandemic high due to fraudulent claims in Texas, initial jobless claims have plunged back below their 3y average (222k) to 218k. Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs. Details in 🧵 #EconSky

Fed restarts policy normalization after almost a year due to soft data... Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside #EconSky