Mohamed A. El-Erian

The news is in: Both Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran will attend this week’s two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting, which begins tomorrow. #economy #FederalReserve #markets

US consumer confidence has fallen below the consensus forecast, with job insecurity joining persistent inflation as a key concern. The widely-followed UMich sentiment index dropped to 55.4 in September, down from 58.2 in August and below the forecasted 58.1. According to Joanne Hsu, the ...

Reminder from Axios: Even when overall inflation looks relatively contained, the headline rate often hides huge differences—some items see particularly sharp price hikes, while others may even be falling in price. In today’s data,a standout inflation jump also has adverse distributional implications

From The Wall Street Journal #markets #spacex @wsj.com #stocks

Good morning. OpenAI has "officially" joined SpaceX and Anthropic in an unprecedented wave of IPOs tapping the capital markets this year. It comes on top of substantial bond funding demands from other corporations and, of course, governments worldwide (refinancing and net new issuance).... 1 of 2

The Economist on key structural changes to the US Treasury market. It concludes that: "The risk is not so much, or not chiefly, that America might default on its debt. Rather,...the fear is that the Treasury market might gradually forfeit its status as the guiding light of global finance.... 1 of 2

The oil price roller-coaster continues After surging as much as 5% earlier this morning (CNBC data below), Brent crude has retraced to just 1% above Friday's close This comes after Tehran responded to President Trump's call for both Iran and Israel to "stop shooting" by announcing a cessation of...

President Trump on Fed Chair Warsh and the central bank's policies—ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where the overwhelming expectation is for no rate change: "Kevin is fantastic, and I want him to do whatever he wants. I don’t want to have a big influence on him. But my feeling is... 1 of 2

As this CNBC table details, US stock futures are trading mixed currently, caught in a tug-of-war that has defined markets for weeks: Rising oil prices and climbing government bond yields weighing on sentiment, together with Asia trading poorly following the weak session on Wall Street on Friday....

The yen has tentatively stabilized for now at ¥160 per US dollar as markets await the authorities' reaction, including the mix of fx intervention, rate hikes, depreciation, and other policy adjustments. (CNBC chart below.) #economy #japan #yen #markets #fx

OPEC+ has raised its output ceiling by 188,000, with the vast majority of the addition viewed by analysts as "paper barrels"—unlikely to reach the market due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, oil prices are up 4% this morning... 1 of 2

This, from The Economist article on "America's decaying Treasury market needs a fix," is one of many reasons why the US has a vital interest in restoring its government bond market—long the world’s gold standard—which has suffered from years of steady erosion. #economy #markets @economist.com

Either link takes you to my weekly commentary on the global economy and markets, which discusses how a big US jobs beat, tech jitters, and a massive week of upcoming CPI data could influence the economy, policymakers, and markets. www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly... open.substack.com/pub/mohamede...