Fabian Hoffmann

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post earlier today, discussing how Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has likely crossed a threshold that earlier phases did not reach. Link to the piece: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-d... Summary below. 1/5

So, apparently a new Ukrainian cruise missile has entered the chat. 3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for. The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.

A recurrent theme throughout this war has been that Western decision-makers, driven by inherent risk aversion, are being pushed ever closer to a position where they will sooner or later have to accept tremendous risks to avert Ukrainian defeat and its catastrophic consequences.

Europe needs a crash program for a mass-producible, low- to medium-cost cruise missile with a range of 500-1,000 km and a payload capacity above 100 kg. Europe has forgotten that things can move quickly when there is political will and when idiosyncratic industrial interests are set aside. 1/2

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing the state of European long-range strike procurement, and diagnosing what I call a European Sonderweg: a divergence from the rest of the world in this capability area. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/a-european... Summary below. 1/4

🚀 I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing a first assassment of the missile war over the Gulf region. In short: The U.S.-Israeli counter-TEL strategy appears to be working. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/race-to-th... Short summary below. 1/5

I published a new Missile Matters post earlier today, discussing Ukraine's recent deep strike against the Votkinsk missile plant and its implications for the missile supply chain. You can access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-f... Short summary below 1/7

🚀 Over the weekend, I published a new Missile Matters post on the nature of correlated and uncorrelated failures in strike warfare. It's a lot more theoretical than my usual posts, but if you are interested in strike warfare, it's worth a read. missilematters.substack.com/p/correlated... 1/4

Some thoughts on the impending U.S. operation against Iran: 1) Within hours, the United States, together with Israel, will establish complete air dominance over Iran. What follows will be a highly visible display of power that only the United States can generate at scale. 1/6

PhD submitted. I will save the grand speech for after the (hopefully successful) defense, but for now let me just say that I am incredibly grateful to everyone who supported me along the way, first and foremost my PhD supervisors. 1/2

What happens if and when U.S. generals receive orders to instruct lethal force against their -- on papers -- allies that they have trained with for decades and build deep personal connections? Is there going to be any pushback or is it just "orders are orders"?

Hi all, I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense. You can access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i... Short summary below. 1/5

Looks like Russia ordered the Tiktok shop version of a Ukrainian mini cruise missile lmao.

I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days. Europe's decisionmakers should take note.