Fabian Hoffmann

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m... Summary below. 1/5

So, apparently a new Ukrainian cruise missile has entered the chat. 3,000+ km range, 1,000 kg payload capacity. That's the long-range, heavy-hitter Ukraine has been waiting for. The fact that this leaked today is unlikely to be a coincidence.

A recurrent theme throughout this war has been that Western decision-makers, driven by inherent risk aversion, are being pushed ever closer to a position where they will sooner or later have to accept tremendous risks to avert Ukrainian defeat and its catastrophic consequences.

Europe needs a crash program for a mass-producible, low- to medium-cost cruise missile with a range of 500-1,000 km and a payload capacity above 100 kg. Europe has forgotten that things can move quickly when there is political will and when idiosyncratic industrial interests are set aside. 1/2

🚀 A few days ago, Missile Matters passed 10,000 subscribers. Today I published a post announcing the biggest change since the blog began: Missile Matters now offers a paid subscription tier. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/10000-subs... 1/5

🚀 New Missile Matters post on how Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has transformed the Ukrainian state itself. In short: the state makes the missile, and the missile makes the state. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-... 1/5

"The state that enters those talks differs in important respects from the state Russia invaded in 2022: a missile power in its own right, retaining the power to hurt. Russia will be negotiating with the missile on the table and state the missile made." missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...

I have serious doubts that this is a worthwhile investment for Germany. As I have mentioned before, I think Trump originally did the Germans a solid by not selling the system, forcing them to look for solutions on the European market. www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen... 1/2

🚀 New Missile Matters post out, reviewing Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile strike on the Titan-Barrikady plant and situating it within Flamingo's emerging strike history Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/is-the-fp-... Short summary below. 1/5

I'll publish a new Missile Matters post on the operational history of the Flamingo tomorrow morning. But what stands out is that, so far, Ukraine does not seem to intend on using the Flamingo to strike oil and gas infrastructure, instead relying on long-range drones for that task. 1/3

🚀 New Missile Matters post on the emerging ballistic missile defense market in Europe, prompted by Frankenburg Technologies' announcement that it is seeking 100 million euros to develop a Patriot-competitive system. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-last-f... Short summary below. 1/5

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post assessing Russia's growing air and missile defense problem. Russia is now experiencing the same interceptor scarcity that has long plagued Ukraine. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/missile-de... Short summary below. 1/5

In all honesty, the US would be doing Germany a favor. The Tomahawk Block Vb, the variant under discussion, will not enter service with the U.S. fleet before 2028, more likely 2029. Germany, as an export partner, would likely have to wait longer still. 1/3 www.politico.com/news/2026/06...