Jeremy Cliffe

Initial thoughts by @jpuglierin.bsky.social and me on the European significance of the AfD’s landslide result in Saxony-Anhalt, and what happens next: ecfr.eu/article/beyo...

Hell of a chart, this, from @financialtimes.com. Spot the JCPOA. on.ft.com/4kSuQYO

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

As far as the Anglo consensus is concerned, Spain's assertive centre-left government has done everything wrong: Keynesian, redistributive, socially open, net-zero-friendly, multilateralist, Trump-sceptical. Yet the governing PSOE just hit 33% in latest CIS poll, above even its 2023 election win.

Looks like the centre-left is on track for a (very narrow) victory at yesterday's Swedish general election. Read @matsengstrom.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on what that could mean for 🇸🇪's place in Europe ⬇️

Germany’s socialist Left party now seemingly consolidating its lead ahead of Berlin state election on September 20:

Congratulations @pawelzerka.bsky.social on this fascinating and innovative @ecfr.eu study - a unique bank of c.6,000 conversations with Europeans about their continent's future. And thanks to Ms Lipa for the title inspiration.

All eyes now on Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany's Baltic Sea coast and its hinterland), where a popular SPD incumbent, Manuela Schwesig, is running as a bulwark against the AfD in the state election on September 20. "Die Frau gegen blau" = "The woman against blue [AfD]"

Polls have closed in Saxony-Anhalt and exit polls put result on a knife edge (AfD 41 seats, others 42). First projections based on actual results due out soon. But if exit polls are right this is a rupture in the history of the federal republic.

Remarkably high turnout in Saxony-Anhalt state election. Polls close at 18:00 CET, with first projections due not long afterwards.

Nine days to go until Sweden's general election, which could return the Social Democrats to power. For @ecfr.eu's New Politics Project, @matsengstrom.bsky.social reports from his behind-the-scenes conversations on what this would mean for 🇸🇪's place in Europe: ecfr.eu/article/afte...

Striking catch-up by SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of state election on 20 September. Having lagged AfD by 10+ points for months it's now only 3 points behind. Confirms Manuela Schwesig, SPD's minster president in the state, as a rising force in the party.

Fascinating read about James Orr, Reform UK's policy head, and his place in wider European radical right networks: www.ft.com/content/c2d0...

Interesting read on the post-Trump "new right" and its Schmittian civilizationism. Including this warning for Europe that belies wishful thinking about a post-2028 return to Atlanticist business as usual ⬇️ www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...