Jeremy Cliffe

Hell of a chart, this, from @financialtimes.com. Spot the JCPOA. on.ft.com/4kSuQYO

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

As far as the Anglo consensus is concerned, Spain's assertive centre-left government has done everything wrong: Keynesian, redistributive, socially open, net-zero-friendly, multilateralist, Trump-sceptical. Yet the governing PSOE just hit 33% in latest CIS poll, above even its 2023 election win.

Our publications @ecfr.eu have been going gangbusters recently. This past month we have published a series of must-read policy briefs on Europe's southern flank: ecfr.eu

Dutch result evinces wider European trend: consolidation of nationalist right's rise accompanied by reconfiguration (or: outright power struggle) within its ranks. FvD & JA21 rising at cost of PVV, FdI eclipsing Lega, factional contests within RN, Konfederacja challenge to PiS...

The significance of a D66 win in 🇳🇱 (if it transpires) will need some explaining outside the country. The Netherlands, like Denmark, has two liberal parties: one rooted in the classical liberal tradition, the other in the radical liberal one. D66 is the latter, ie the left-of-centre liberal party.

Couple of thoughts on today's election in the Netherlands: 1/2 The huge number of parties isn't a story of Dutch eccentricity, but of hyper-fragmented politics in most European countries. The only difference is that the Dutch electoral system exposes that fragmentation where others conceal it.

Welcome to @equatormag.bsky.social, a new magazine proposing to "hold up a mirror to a global audience of readers and writers who don’t yet recognise themselves as belonging together". Some great folks involved - give it a read. www.equator.org

“the Vatican is now clearly marking itself out against the dominant trend in contemporary politics, especially in the pope’s home country” < interesting on Leo XIV and JD Vance as rival poles of Catholic statecraft on.ft.com/3J5XVlX

Among the most significant questions about Trump's 2nd term: will he help tip the balance in favour of his ideological allies outside the US? Milei's midterm win following $40 billion US bailout offer is the most prominent datapoint yet. Next stop: Orbán's Hungary? www.reuters.com/world/americ...

One for the “Brexit will insulate UK from the far-right” crowd: the mainstream UK centre-right party is now proposing policies well to the right even of Germany’s notoriously extreme AfD.

A rainy night at the Centro Studi Americani in Rome

Germany’s sheer determination to box its already-struggling car industry into a dying technology will never cease to amaze me.