Jeremy Cliffe

Delighted to announce the launch of the New Politics Project at @ecfr.eu. Led by me in Berlin and Piotr Buras in Warsaw, it will 1) research how volatility, fragmentation & populism are reshaping European foreign policies, 2) build a resilient agenda for a stronger, autonomous Europe. ecfr.eu/npp

Hell of a chart, this, from @financialtimes.com. Spot the JCPOA. on.ft.com/4kSuQYO

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

As far as the Anglo consensus is concerned, Spain's assertive centre-left government has done everything wrong: Keynesian, redistributive, socially open, net-zero-friendly, multilateralist, Trump-sceptical. Yet the governing PSOE just hit 33% in latest CIS poll, above even its 2023 election win.

Europemaxxing

Great piece by @fromtga.bsky.social: Germany’s defence surge is transformational but the big question is whether it’s done narrowly and nationally or as part of a wider European rearmament.

Quite aside from the Starmer drama, it is remarkable how utterly absent the realities of today's EU are from current UK debates about reset/rejoin etc. Both neo-remainers and neo-leavers are peddling a "back to 2016" button that doesn't exist.

Berlin's @tagesspiegel.de newspaper asked me to revisit the reflections on the city I gave them in 2018 and discuss how it has changed in the intervening 8 years. In short: Berlin can be bloody annoying, but I love it more with each passing year ⬇️ www.tagesspiegel.de/checkpoint/d...

This reflects well on Rachel Reeves.

Germany’s rearmament is Europe’s best hope of achieving real strategic autonomy. So it doesn’t bode well that its media has spent the past few days *obsessing* about whether or not Merz maybe did or didn’t offend Trump with a throwaway comment. The mentality of a vassal state.

There are two ways Germany could take the news US is pulling 5k of its DE-based troops: a) Panic, flee back to the old protector, flatter Trump in hope of reprieve b) Accept & advance: Europeanise 🇩🇪's huge defence investment package, embrace strategic autonomy www.reuters.com/world/us-wit...

Good @chassnews.bsky.social & Leila Abboud piece on Germany's €779bn defence build-up. Key question is whether this proceeds as a "Germany First" or a "European Germany" rearmament - in procurement, financing, military & political coordination, industrial strategy... www.ft.com/content/4b7c...

Meloni isn't just a talented politician, but also a lucky one who presided over a convergent Italian right (2022 election: 12.3m votes). The Italian liberal-populist-left has long been divided (2022: 7.3m centre-left, 4.3m 5 Star, 2.2m liberal = 13.8m). Salis is an ideal figure to unite that camp.

One for Italy-watchers, this: if the country has a better post-Meloni future, it may well be called Silvia Salis.