Joe Brusuelas

Fresh from the BLS website…I trust they will have this fixed momentarily

US July PPI Comes in Hot: the primary takeaway is that US corporate margins are going to thin which creates the conditions for inflation to be passed along downstream to American households.

US Q2'25 GDP: The economy is growing at a much slower pace than the 3% topline growth rate implies. Trade related distortions in net exports wreaked havoc with 2025 growth data once again as Q2’25 growth increased 3%, overstating the true underlying pace of economic activity. #Econ #EconSky

West Texas Intermediate up 9% in early Asian session to $105.39.

Risk off in early trading with dollar up along with oil as equity futures down. Covered this in my morning note on the cost of ceasefire talks breaking down. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A special Sunday morning note on the cost of failed ceasefire talks. The intersection between economics, finance, commodities & geopolitical security is about to get red hot. Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

The two data points that matter as ceasefire negotiations continue. Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz & the spot price for physical delivery or dated Brent crude. #Econ #EconSky

Interested in what to expect from a Kevin Warsh led Fed? My view is included among many of me peers in this terrific article via ⁦‪@markets‬⁩ ⁦‪@business‬⁩ ⁦‪@TheTerminal‬⁩ that is well worth your time. #Econ #EconSky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It’s good that we all have something to cheer for that involves a positive aspirational vision of humanity.

As we head into the ceasefire talks over the weekend here is the price signal that is paramount as the Strait of Hormuz remains open only to Iranian approved transport. Dated Brent crude or the spot price for physical delivery closed for the week at $125.88 compared with the paper price of $94.14.

Fuel oil jumped 30.7% in March & is up 44.2% from one year ago. While the focus will be on the 39% increase in the cost of retail gasoline the jump in fuel oil cost should not be overlooked. #Econ #EconSky

March CPI: a look at the year ago increase in energy costs per your request. Not real wage growth once adjusted for the energy shock slowed from 1.4% to 0.3% in March. I trust you can do the math.

March CPI: If one wants to see where the cost of war comes home it is in the energy complex inside the March CPI. That 30.7% increase in fuel oil and large double digit increases across the complex in addition to that 21.2% jump in gasoline prices. #Econ #EconSky