Joe Brusuelas

Fresh from the BLS website…I trust they will have this fixed momentarily

US July PPI Comes in Hot: the primary takeaway is that US corporate margins are going to thin which creates the conditions for inflation to be passed along downstream to American households.

US Q2'25 GDP: The economy is growing at a much slower pace than the 3% topline growth rate implies. Trade related distortions in net exports wreaked havoc with 2025 growth data once again as Q2’25 growth increased 3%, overstating the true underlying pace of economic activity. #Econ #EconSky

Dated Brent crude or the delivery price for a physical barrel of oil today reached $130.65 below the wartime high of $144.46. One would expect a test of that in coming days/weeks. Winter is coming.

US 10-year yield breeches 5%. For the trading community oil & yields moving in tight correlation. For everyone else the three shocks and the regime change in inflation & interest rates rolls on. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Big week ahead in central banking. The BoE, Fed & BoJ all making policy decisions. The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. Big week ahead in global central banking. The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #BoJ #BoE realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Looking forward to appearing in @questCNN tonight at 9:15 PM BST/4:15 PM ET to discuss today’s US CPI and its policy implications for the Federal Reserve with @paulanewtonCNN

US August CPI Diffusion Indices: presented for your perusal. Note that 15.9% of the index is advancing above 4% year-over-year and 63.5% are increasing between 2% and 4%. This is not what disinflation looks like. All Fed decisions are judgement calls. #Econ #EconSky

My note on the US August CPI report. The longer the Fed waits to push inflation back to 2% the more painful it will be for all of us. August inflation data demands rate hikes from the Fed. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/august-infla...

FOMC September Rate Decision: Investors are pricing in a 85.8% probability of a rate hike next week and a 65% chance in December. The probability of a BoJ rate hike next week is 97%. Only the BoE is expected not to join what is increasingly looking like a global synchronized rate hike campaign.

US August CPI : Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%, fuel oil 10.1%, energy commodities 4.2% & energy 2.1% on the month. Taken out to three digits the monthly increase was 0.396% which is a strong 0.4 and the core was up 0.290 a strong 0.3%. #Econ #EconSky #CPI

US August CPI : We are getting a rate hike at the September Fed meeting. This is not what disinflation looks like people. In August inflation up 0.4% and the core 0.3%. On a year ago basis its up 3.4% in the headline and 2.4% in the core. #Econ #EconSky #inflation #cpi