Kyle Kondik

New Crystal Ball - The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats 20 states have voted R for president since at least 2000. In 2000, Ds had 13/40 Senate seats from these states. Now they have 0 centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.

Crystal Ball -- Demystifying the Senate "undervote" in 2024 -- how what we saw (smaller vote totals than the presidential race, winners getting fewer votes than their party presidential candidate, etc.) fits in with history centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Crystal Ball -- Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms: Smaller turnout, an older/whiter/more educated electorate, and the non-presidential party typically improving its share of the overall House vote centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Crystal Ball: Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

NEW Crystal Ball: @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on House district presidential voting in Trump's three elections. All but 28 districts (shown in the map) voted the same way in all 3 elections based on the current lines centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

NEW Crystal Ball -- Trump's approval a month in Still net positive but has weakened a bit. He's also overperforming with some Democratic-leaning groups -- reasonable to wonder whether that will continue centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

NEW Crystal Ball Senate ratings, including analysis of midterm Senate rhythms and setting expectations. Rs heavily favored to hold majority. Ratings updated to reflect Tina Smith's retirement earlier today centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Raw votes in IA Sen District 35, 2022 midterm -- a little under 24k votes, R wins by 22 pts Turnout in last night's special -- roughly 9,300, D wins by roughly 3.5 pts obviously great result for Ds but also much lower turnout than even a midterm, common in these kinds of races

We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.

NEW Crystal Ball: 13 Ds in Trump districts, just 3 Rs in Harris districts. Total of 16 crossover districts ties 2020 for fewest in modern history. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...