METR

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

When will AI systems be able to carry out long projects independently? In new research, we find a kind of “Moore’s Law for AI agents”: the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling about every 7 months.

We have open-sourced anonymized data and core analysis code for our developer productivity RCT. The paper is also live on arXiv, with two new sections: One discussing alternative uncertainty estimation methods, and a new 'bias from developer recruitment' factor that has unclear effect on slowdown.

We estimate that Claude Opus 4.1 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 1 hr 45 min (95% confidence interval of 50 to 195 minutes) on our agentic multi-step software engineering tasks. This estimate is lower than the current highest time-horizon point estimate of around 2 hr 15 min.

We tested how autonomous AI agents perform on real software tasks from our recent developer productivity RCT. We found a gap between algorithmic scoring and real-world usability that may help explain why AI benchmarks feel disconnected from reality.

Before publishing our recent developer productivity RCT, we thought hard about how to accurately and clearly communicate our results. In a new blog post, we outline some of our key considerations regarding scientific integrity and communication.

Prior work has found that Chain of Thought (CoT) can be unfaithful. Should we then ignore what it says? In new research, we find that the CoT is informative about LLM cognition as long as the cognition is complex enough that it can’t be performed in a single forward pass.

In a new report, we evaluate whether GPT-5 poses significant catastrophic risks via AI R&D acceleration, rogue replication, or sabotage of AI labs. We conclude that this seems unlikely. However, capability trends continue rapidly, and models display increasing eval awareness.

We found that Grok 4’s 50%-time-horizon on our agentic multi-step software engineering tasks is about 1hr 50min (with a 95% CI of 48min to 3hr 52min) compared to o3 (previous SOTA) at about 1hr 30min. However, Grok 4’s time horizon is below SOTA at higher success rate thresholds.

We have open-sourced anonymized data and core analysis code for our developer productivity RCT. The paper is also live on arXiv, with two new sections: One discussing alternative uncertainty estimation methods, and a new 'bias from developer recruitment' factor that has unclear effect on slowdown.

METR previously estimated that the time horizon of AI agents on software tasks is doubling every 7 months. We have now analyzed 9 other benchmarks for scientific reasoning, math, robotics, computer use, and self-driving; we observe generally similar rates of improvement.

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

In measurements using our set of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, Claude 4 Opus and Sonnet reach 50%-time-horizon point estimates of about 80 and 65 minutes, respectively.