Michael Caley

in the latest Expecting Goals newsletter (free to read!) I broke down the numbers on the Premier League set piece revolution and why I think it marks a major new tactical trend in the Premier League that will be unusually difficult to dislodge www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-pi...

broadly I think something people miss about bsky is that the two main groups which did not migrate over here en masse are moderates and low trust / shitposter leftists this is a disproportionately a high trust liberal to left space

an underrated source of instability over the next few years is Israel's continued desperation to start a full-on regional war

ok this was an excellent post and Eric Adams dropping out of the race while speaking from a podium that reads "NEVER QUITS" would have been one of the most perfectly Eric Adams things ever to happen but apparently he's refusing the Trump bribe and staying in the race lol and lmao

so oil market knowers please do correct me if I'm an idiot and this has a material cause but it sure seems like, because no one knows what the correct price is when Trump could always just end the war and the Strait would soon re-open, the market has settled on $100 because it's a nice round number

been reading more twitter recently because so many of the better Middle East Knower and Oil Knower accounts are over there, and what's struck me is much less the radicalization and much more how bad the information context is people on the right, center, and left all sharing deeply made-up stuff

outside of a few extreme cases at the far ends, the idea that what's wrong with America is that our federal income tax is not progressive enough is just wrong wrong wrong I'm sure this polls well but jesus christ this is dumb

every day we stray further from god's light (by which I mean Matt Levine's theory that markets should be open for one minute every weekday rather than constantly and forever)

"we've created the Hormuz Crisis from the famous group chat topic 'a Hormuz Crisis would be extremely bad'" www.wsj.com/world/middle...

I wonder if Trump is now talking about the nukes because he is trying to find a winning condition to claim, and he wants to authorize the Isfahan raid and then call that victory he can't claim resume change now that they've announced Khamenei

whew boy that's some expensive oil

back to the same problem -American war aims are somewhere between incoherent and non-existent (warfighting! regime change I guess?) -Israeli war aims are clear but insane (destroy the Iranian state and any source of future stability in Iran) www.axios.com/2026/03/08/u...

there remains a very real possibility that once again Trump will call backsies on another of his terrible ideas before it causes a chain reaction in global markets but achieving this via an indefinitely extended naval campaign in terrible terrain, yeah, count me dubious