Michael Lowry

If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️

According to a Navy spokesperson I spoke with, the 11th hour decision to keep data flowing from the three weather satellites was due to critical feedback it received. A testament that our voices and concerns do very much matter. My full afternoon update ⬇️

According Dr. Robert Atlas, the elimination of NOAA's AOML as proposed in their 2026 budget would result in a 20-40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, costing the economy an estimated $10 billion each hurricane season. Sobering numbers on what's at stake.

It's a bit of a mess to be sure but there's a narrow window for the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season to form. Regardless, it's all about the multi-day flood threat from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Lower Mississippi River Valley this week.

The saga of once-Tropical Storm Cristina continues this week, as its remnants get mixed up with an advancing front over Texas and the Deep South. There's a brief development window mid-week, but the upshot regardless is copious rain and widespread flooding. More ⬇️

The AI models are sniffing out the chance of development into early next week over the northern Gulf but conventional physics-based models aren't biting. Either way, odds are low but we'll follow the trends this weekend. More in today's newsletter ⬇️

El Niño was officially declared today by @noaa.gov. The warming so far in the eastern Pacific is exceptional, and a strong El Niño by the hurricane season peak is almost a foregone conclusion. In today's newsletter, I dig deep into the latest hurricane outlook. ⬇️

This morning the National Hurricane Center @NWSNHC tagged its first area to watch for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As I've covered in the newsletter since last week, odds are low, but the Bay of Campeche has a knack for bucking the odds. More ⬇️

El Niño is generally welcome news for the Atlantic hurricane season. But El Niño years can shift the risks among U.S. states threatened. Today I discuss how Louisiana and South Carolina stand out and why we see a dearth of major landfalls north of Florida. ⬇️

Models aren't biting just yet, but it's worth watching the western Caribbean and southern Gulf come late next week as the Central American Gyre ramps up, enhancing storminess on the Atlantic side. Wind shear may slacken enough to open a window. More ⬇️

In today's newsletter, I discuss where we might expect to see tropical development for the first half of June. Long range models are mostly mum for now, but we'll see if a weaker MJO pulse changes that tune by mid month. More ⬇️

The daily tropical newsletter is back for its 5th hurricane season. I distribute this to subscribers each weekday morning and on weekends when conditions warrant. Today it's all about how the potentially historic El Niño could shape the season. ⬇️