Michael Lowry

If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️

According to a Navy spokesperson I spoke with, the 11th hour decision to keep data flowing from the three weather satellites was due to critical feedback it received. A testament that our voices and concerns do very much matter. My full afternoon update ⬇️

According Dr. Robert Atlas, the elimination of NOAA's AOML as proposed in their 2026 budget would result in a 20-40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, costing the economy an estimated $10 billion each hurricane season. Sobering numbers on what's at stake.

Only twice in the reliable records have we gone the entire week centered on the September 10th hurricane season peak with no tropical activity. This week marks only the 3rd time and the ongoing hurricane drought isn't about to be busted anytime soon. ⬇️

Lowell deviated about 150 miles east of the official forecast from Friday, bringing its core dangerously close to Kauai and Niihau, the westernmost of the main Hawaiian islands. It's the strongest hurricane to affect this part of Hawaii in 30+ years. ⬇️

Last year NHC wasn't fully leveraging Google DeepMind all season so comparing its performance to the NHC forecast wasn't exactly apples-to-apples. To see it still beating the official NHC forecast (and notably so) in 2026 speaks to how impressive it is relative to all other models.

To date the Atlantic hurricane season is the least active of the reliable record (since at least 1950) and that doesn't look to change anytime soon. This will be a record third consecutive Labor Day weekend without a system to speak of across the Atlantic.

Edouard is proving to be a prolific rainmaker and significant flood event for parts of southeast and east-central Texas. Almost 20 inches of rain already observed so far with more to come. Today is a rare high risk flash flood day. My latest ⬇️

Hurricane Hunters in Edouard are finding a strengthening storm this morning. Based on a recent dropsonde on its south side, winds may be 50-60 mph now. It's only a few hours from moving inland but it's making the most of its time left over water. My latest ⬇️

Dolly the storm was a flash in the pan, unraveling only 24 hours after forming. The drought-stricken islands could use some beneficial rains which hopefully its remnants bring. As far as redeployment, odds remain low but not quite negligible. My latest ⬇️

Topical note from NHC on newly minted Tropical Storm Dolly

Forecast models soured overnight on 96L's chances this week. It could still clear the entry level threshold but will hit a staunch roadblock by this weekend. The bigger question is will it try to make a comeback over the southwestern Atlantic next week? ⬇️

It's all about Invest 96L in today's newsletter. Lots of scenarios to discuss with this one and, not surprisingly, exceptionally wide bookends. DeepMind favors no devlopment this week and devlopment next. But will it survive the shear gauntlet first? ⬇️