Michael Lowry

It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but yesterday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes.com I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead?

If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️

According to a Navy spokesperson I spoke with, the 11th hour decision to keep data flowing from the three weather satellites was due to critical feedback it received. A testament that our voices and concerns do very much matter. My full afternoon update ⬇️

According Dr. Robert Atlas, the elimination of NOAA's AOML as proposed in their 2026 budget would result in a 20-40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, costing the economy an estimated $10 billion each hurricane season. Sobering numbers on what's at stake.

I pack today's newsletter full of spectacular visuals of Melissa from @cira-csu.bsky.social and dig deep on why what they show us matters. "Superintensity," "phytoplankton," and "chlorophyll a" aren't typically part of the hurricane discussion, but they are today. ⬇️

Saw something very similar after Hurricane Ian in 2022. New NOAA-funded research published in March found this sort of upwelling from strong hurricanes (causing the aquamarine color) and engorged river runoff stimulate phytoplankton blooms, leading to severe red tide outbreaks.

A lot of jaw-dropping satellite loops of Melissa the past day or two, but this one might take top prize. If Dakota hadn't posted this, I might have called AI shenanigans. Surreal.

Melissa proved to be not only one of the strongest hurricanes on record, but one of the most durable and resilient Category 5s we've ever seen. In today's newsletter, I discuss why it stayed so strong for so long as where Melissa's headed next. ⬇️

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.

So much news today with Hurricane Melissa. Between wall-to-wall on-air coverage, I've managed to also pull together a special late edition of the daily newsletter, including everything we know so far about Melissa. My heart is with all those affected.

With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.

Melissa's pressure now down to 896 mb, making it the 5th most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure). With winds now at 180 mph, Melissa will be the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane since Dorian in 2019. A worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica.

Melissa is Jamaica-bound as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The forecast is as dire as it gets. Preparations to protect life and property across the island should be rushed to completion. Melissa threatens to be the worst Jamaica's ever experienced ⬇️

For the late-night Dvorak historians in the audience, have we ever observed a T 8.2 in the Atlantic? Melissa looking more like a West-Pacific-grade super typhoon tonight.