Phillips OBrien

Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...

One of the most remarkable things of the last 9 months is how many Americans seem to believe the President is all powerful and Congress has no say. Actually Congress has been ineffective by choice. It has immense power if it had the courage to use it.

If Trump really wanted to sanction Putin, he could. It would be no problem. Congress would go for any sanction he wanted. So any time Trump puts a condition on sanctions, it’s just another piece of evidence that he is protecting Putin from sanctions and helping Russia in the war.

The main lesson from last night for Poland (indeed all NATO in CEE) should be that their defense starts in Ukraine. Imagine the results if Russians could launch a massive UAV attack on Poland from just over the border in Ukraine?

Latest piece is out. Too much of the discussion is about replenishing US military stocks. The truth is that the US military was failing before this and would have lost a war with China as it was on Feb 27, 2026. It needs to be remade, not reconstructed as it was. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

A quick lesson on winning and losing a war. If you start a war of choice, blow through masses of your weapons stocks so that you cannot escalate effectively, and find the country you attacked dictating negotiating terms while in a stronger strategic position. You lost.

It’s mind boggling how little European states are talking about the possible deployment of a powerful offensive and ballistic missile capable North Korean force to attack Ukraine. Europe is failing if this is shrugged off. www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Free weekend update is out. This week a detailed analysis of a Trump con, which the press fell for entirely. He always knew Ukraine was dependent on Patriots, and used that leverage to harm Ukraine. He had no intention of letting Ukraine have a Patriot license… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Latest piece. If AI/Autonomous systems are the future of war (and they are) they were also recently oversold, The US, with AI supposedly at the "heart" of its war machine, just lost a war in one of the most shocking ways in history. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

People are missing the real story here. It is this. If Putin is thinking of testing NATO, he knows that the USA would do nothing to protect Europe. In other words, he knows what Trump will do. If he thought the USA would fight, he would never consider this. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Trump never warmed to Ukraine, he never changed his mind about helping Ukraine, he was not on the verge of letting them have Patriot license. It was all a myth to help Putin and hurt Ukraine. You need to understand that to make sense of the last 18 months.

New Midweek Update is out (mostly free). The reality of what has ALREADY happened means that what we are seeing is haggling over the terms of US defeat. The US is running out of weapons and is already pulling its troops out of the region. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The USA has helped maneuver Ukraine into this position, where the Russians will murder masses of Ukrainian civilians. Thanks to America! www.reuters.com/business/aer...

All you Trump backers who lie about supporting Ukraine…this is what you actually support. These Ukrainians are being killed partly through the policy choices of the Trump administration. The USA could have saved many of these lives but chose not to. www.cnn.com/2026/08/05/e...