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Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf.bsky.social

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Contributor @the-downballot.com. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen WolfMay 20

NEW 馃У: Here's how Dems could redraw 9 congressional maps by 2028 & target more than 20 GOP seats. The GOP tried to rig the national map in 2026, & Dems had few ways to respond. But Dems could fully counteract them by 2028. We have example maps for each state www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...

Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in:

Colorado: 3
Illinois: 1
Maryland: 1
Minnesota: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Virginia: 4
Wisconsin: 3
Total: 21
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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen WolfJun 14

The Declaration of Independence specifies 27 grievances with King George III and Britain. Donald Trump has committed at least 16 of those same offenses. #NoKings

Screenshot of a list of the 27 specific grievances against King George III in the Declaration of Independence. Donald Trump's regime has committed at least 16 of them in whole or in part, highlighted in yellow and listed below:
"1. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
2. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
3. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither [Partial]
4. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
5. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
6. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
7. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
8. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
9. For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
10. For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
11. For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
12. For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
13. [Partial], abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
14. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
15. [Partial], and destroyed the lives of our people.
16. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us [Partial]"
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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen WolfJul 17

Florida's Supreme Court has upheld the GOP's congressional gerrymander, which may have cost Dems 3 seats & a House majority in 2024. Voters passed a 2010 amendment that explicitly banned partisan & racial gerrymandering. The court enforced it in 2015, but DeSantis appointees now dominate the court

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf13h

The Supreme Court鈥檚 Republicans made racial gerrymandering cases practically impossible to win this past year, but Trump wants to go even further. Unconstitutionally excluding noncitizens would let white Republicans draw even more extreme gerrymanders in states like Texas

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf3d

I鈥檒l believe this when I see it, and Massachusetts isn鈥檛 going to elect a pro-Trump Republican in 2026, but no rich guy should be able to spend a fraction of this much money on his own election. Overturning Citizens United wouldn鈥檛 solve this particular problem鈥擝uckley v. Valeo has to go too

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf6d

If SCOTUS doesn鈥檛 block this ruling: The median congressional district on the 2026 map would shift from VA-01 at Trump+4.9 to WI-01 at Trump+4.5 in 2024. Trump districts would decline by one to a 234-201 majority

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf6d

More good redistricting news for Dems today: Maryland鈥檚 Supreme Court has ruled their redistricting amendment WILL be on the ballot, overruling a lower court. If passed, Dems could target a GOP seat in 2028. This ruling comes just after Missouri鈥檚 top court blocked the GOP鈥檚 new map for this year

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf6d

The is a HUGE win against Republican gerrymandering that would preserve another safe district held by a Black Democrat. Missouri Republicans blatantly violated the law to try to run out the clock on the veto referendum, which should have blocked the new gerrymander months ago

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen Wolf6d

Big news in North Carolina: 1 of the 3 GOP Supreme Court justices up in 2028 won鈥檛 run again, easing the path for a Democratic majority. If Dem Justice Anita Earls wins this year, Dems would only need 2 flips in 2028 to gain a 4-3 majority. They could then strike down the GOP鈥檚 gerrymanders again

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Stephen Wolf avatar
Stephen WolfSep 2

Trump has been determined to disprove every argument that Electoral College proponents have made. No, it doesn鈥檛 compel candidates to pay attention to the interests of voters all over the country. It shields a tyrant from electoral blowback when he tells states that voted against him to drop dead

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