Stephen Wolf

After SCOTUS gutted the VRA, the GOP is set to target 2-4 more Black Dems in AL and LA. They could add 1 each in MS and SC for 2-6 more targets in 2026. Dems are out of options for 2026 but could target up to 23 currently GOP-held seats by 2028. Click this link for details bsky.app/profile/step...

The Declaration of Independence specifies 27 grievances with King George III and Britain. Donald Trump has committed at least 16 of those same offenses. #NoKings

Florida's Supreme Court has upheld the GOP's congressional gerrymander, which may have cost Dems 3 seats & a House majority in 2024. Voters passed a 2010 amendment that explicitly banned partisan & racial gerrymandering. The court enforced it in 2015, but DeSantis appointees now dominate the court

Update: Dems redrawing Washington’s congressional map in 2028 is no longer feasible. Filing recently closed, & Dems aren’t contesting enough Senate seats for a supermajority, but the 2026 map was very tough regardless. Dems have much better odds in 2028 & could still pass new maps for 2030/beyond

New Jersey Senate president says Dems are considering an amendment for November’s ballot to draw an 11-1 congressional map in 2028 & make 2 GOP seats much bluer. They could draw GOP Reps. Jeff Van Drew & Chris Smith together in 1 red seat to flip NJ-02, & also target NJ-07, which may flip this year

South Carolina’s governor has called a special session so Republicans can pass their 7-0 congressional gerrymander below to eliminate a Black Democrat. They only need simple majorities to pass it, unlike an earlier procedural vote where they failed to reach 2/3 after some Republicans opposed it

Louisiana’s GOP Senate has passed a new House gerrymander to oust 1 of 2 Black Dems & elect a 5-1 white GOP majority in a 1/3 Black state. LA-02 in New Orleans grabs Black Dems from Baton Rouge to turn LA-06 heavily white. It’s practically the same map ⬇️ that got struck down for violating the VRA

Republicans have packed supreme courts or tried to in several states since 2016. Utah’s GOP did it this year to try to end fair redistricting. Wyoming’s Supreme Court overturned an abortion ban because of an amendment Republicans passed to undermine Obamacare, so now they’re targeting the court

Democrats could flip two Georgia Supreme Court seats in nonpartisan elections coinciding with Tuesday’s primaries. This is a very good sign

Private schooling arose across the South as white resistance to desegregation. Lily-white communities have also pushed to secede from diverse public school districts for many years, and the Voting Rights Act’s demise removes a roadblock to these resegregation efforts

This chart is excellent. It’s really clear how Labour didn’t just lose votes on the margins, its coalition fully fractured into several pieces. Betraying your party’s core values to try to win over voters who loathe you is bad politics in a majoritarian system with several parties

Killing the VRA when they did & dropping any pretense that the “too late to make election changes” rule applies fairly to the GOP ensured that: 1) The GOP could gerrymander several states 2) It’s too late for Dems to sue or pass new maps in 2026 Trump is desperate because he’s losing the midterms

Big redistricting news: NOTUS reports Maryland Senate leader Bill Ferguson could be reconsidering after he blocked Dems from passing a new map to flip a GOP House seat earlier this year. It could be be too late for 2026, but Dems could at least put a measure on November's ballot for a new 2028 map